what is the ticker symbol for shopify

always says welcome back to you a fellow,creator dick assemble you just recently,made a video with this title three,stocks i'm buying i have to admit it,definitely got my attention so i thought,why not make a reaction video let's,start with shopify shopify stock is down,almost 80 percent from its all-time,highs last november now whenever i make,such exposed videos by the way i've made,several of them this is business i,always get the same comment why don't,you just stick to stock analysis because,you're pretty good at it why do you have,to make such controversial videos and i,think it's a genuine question and i,don't want to duck it you see when i,started investing i also used to watch,youtube videos and whenever i saw a,video with let's say thirty thousand,fifty thousand in this case this video,has seventy thousand views i used to,think that the guy definitely knows,something that i don't that's why the,guy has 70 000 views right,it was only later that i realized in,most cases it's actually utter garbage,and i apologize for my language in,advance this leaves me with two options,first i can avoid this thing but if i,know how to analyze stocks i shouldn't,avoid it but anyways that's the first,option or i decide to address it in my,case i chose the second option because i,think if i can help only two or three,people i'm more than satisfied with the,results because in this case i generally,don't care about dislikes i just want to,help people now this particular video,was made three or four weeks ago i'll,show you the exact date as you might,have guessed the stock tanked again by,the way and it's down by 24 just in the,last four weeks here's what i find,unfathomable we know we are facing,several headwinds we'll have higher,interest rates inflation raw material,prices have sourced of course you are,facing logistics issues as well yet for,some reason youtubers decide to pump,garbage stocks that never showed you,profits or free cash flows what's the,reason i have no idea but let's see his,logic behind this shopify helps,businesses create manage and grow their,online stores now i think this is a,valid description because in the case of,shopify i'm sure you're familiar with,the business model so i won't waste your,time here the only thing he missed here,is competition this space is brutally,competitive now i went through the,entire video just to see if he actually,mentioned something about competition,and as you might have guessed he didn't,say anything,so just to give you some context here in,the case of shopify they have two types,of competitors the first one is cheap,players now when i say two players,basically their pricing is cheaper so,i'll give you one example here this is,dukan this is an indian player by the,way take a look at the pricing you'll,see the basic tier is extremely cheap,compared to shopify i'm sure you might,be thinking well why do i care about,dukan it's an indian player i want to,focus on international players well,here's the thing this company is,actually expanding internationally they,don't have to show profits because they,are backed by vcs and in the last week,alone they got more than 1 000 clients,so the company is growing at a rapid,pace i'm sure you might be thinking okay,so they are facing intense competition,yet despite that shopify is actually,growing by double digits so if anything,i should just focus on this company,right well unfortunately it's not so,simple you see in the case of shopify,most of their merchants are small,merchants so four or five years ago they,didn't have an online presence now they,want to try and do something online and,that's why they started using shopify,the problem is most of them won't,succeed one big reason behind this is,audience potential clients in the case,of amazon if we list these cheap airpods,well we can actually sell a lot if you,have decent images and nice pricing,unfortunately in the case of shopify,they don't have an audience so you'll,have to bring your own audience this can,be through youtube blogs facebook,snapchat you can use any platform but,you need your own audience and most of,the time small businesses actually,struggle with that aspect so if i'm a,small business i know the odds are not,in my favor i don't want to pay 20 or 30,per month and that's why these cheap,players are succeeding because most of,the small businesses they already know,they might not succeed and then we have,the other end of the spectrum and that's,big merchants you could say that okay,shopify is not doing great with small,businesses but when it comes to big,merchants shopify is doing really well,so of course they make a lot of money,well unfortunately that's not the case,either,you see when it comes to big merchants,actually the biggest player here is,woocommerce you can see here they have,more than 20 market share so the,question is why is woocommerce,succeeding and there's one simple answer,behind that and that's customization so,shopify actually gives you many,templates and layouts but in the case of,woocommerce it's literally endless they,have more than 70 000 templates you can,literally customize it the way you want,and that's why when i started this,segment i told you they're facing,intense competition and you need to,analyze them before you decide to invest,in this company but if you're liking,this video and you like to support my,channel please click the like button,down below it really helps me out before,the pandemic began shopify's gmp was,growing at 53 per year but since the,pandemic that number grew at 57,for almost two years straight now this,gmb chart is extremely important because,prima facie it seems like shopify is,thriving their merchants are also going,by leaps and bounds fun,coupons but once you decide to dig,deeper you'll realize there's a minor,cracks that have started affecting this,company because you need to remember,shopify targets small businesses the,problem is with these businesses the,odds are not in your favor according to,the u.s bureau in the first year alone,20 of small businesses fail in the next,five years 50 of small businesses fail,if this wasn't enough container costs of,search energy costs are extremely high,all prices high so how do you think,small businesses are going to survive,but in this case we already knew this,from 2020 by the way take a look this is,a creator and he actually studied all,the clients or basically cohorts shopify,has and as you can see in his conclusion,he clearly mentions only five percent of,merchants were still on shopify after,the first year basically 95,that's your churn now of course in 2020,and 2021 the company did well because,well we had lockdowns small businesses,have to sign up they have to do,something online and that's why shopify,made a lot of money the problem is now,small businesses know it's not working,we don't even have an audience why would,we try on top of it you have cheaper,options if we thought this was enough,and wait for the kicker we see in the,current environment investors prefer,profits and free cash flows that's one,of the reasons why companies like,alphabet and microsoft for example,they're only down by 25 28,just in the spread of full disclosure,they're my biggest holdings i've,mentioned this umpteen times i don't,like to hide these things but if you,take companies like shopify and the next,company as i'll show you will get down,by 28 just in the last four weeks,because they'll never show you profits,and here's the issue in the latest call,the management openly told you we'll,reinvest all our gross profit back into,the business so please be careful with,such companies the next company on the,list is twilio well as you might have,guessed just like shopify in the last,four weeks alone this stock is down by,28 so i'm genuinely curious why he likes,this company if you've ever booked an,airbnb and gotten a confirmation text,that's twilio now in the same clip he,actually explains the business model of,this company but i cut that part because,i simply couldn't comprehend that they,basically offer apis so you could say,it's a software company but as i'll show,you later when it comes to margins it's,very far from a software company now,we're getting into real territory here,so they offer api for customer,engagements so let's say companies like,doordash shopify lyft when they send you,a message that's actually coming from,twilio mostly now please keep in mind,even though i just said sms in reality,they have many services so you have,voice you have sms that's how the,company started then you have video and,you also have email initially when a,client actually starts with twilio they,start with sms now you might say well,what's the problem with that it's a,software business right not really you,see in the sms part gross margins are,extremely low they reach around 45 gross,margins you see it doesn't seem like a,software business everyone starts with,that service but eventually let's say,they move to email for example in the,email part they have more than 70 80,gross margins as you can see over here,twilio's organic quarterly revenue grew,by 35 percent year over year i like to,look at their organic revenue because it,doesn't include revenue from their,recent acquisitions i like the fact that,it took organic growth that was a really,smart move the problem is the growth,rate once again is slowing down you see,two or three years ago this company was,growing by 60 or 70 percent now it's,growing with 35 percent now the,long-term guidance stays at 30 so what,do you think will happen with their,valuations remember i can't use the pe,ratio because there are no earnings so,as you can see over here price to sales,ratio well it got crushed the problem is,despite that people are still pumping,these stocks which i just can't,understand let me point out a few things,here first 35 year-over-year growth is,pretty incredible you see i'm not,comfortable using the term incredible,here either you're a growth stock,growing by 50 or 60 percent but then,it's fine don't show me profits so if,you take companies like snowflake data,dog i'm not interested in them but okay,they are great at a really rapid pace on,the other hand you have companies like,alphabet for example they are not,growing by 50,they're growing by 20 but their margins,are improving profits are also improved,unfortunately this company is literally,in the middle it doesn't offer you,anything it doesn't offer you the growth,of a growth stock it doesn't offer you,profits of a stable company like asmr,alphabet and that's why these companies,they're always the first ones to get,crushed but let's dig deeper let's check,some of their numbers like gross margins,for example i'm just curious you'll see,every year the gross margins are,declining consistently you see part of,twilio's business is actually,commoditized especially the sms one,william is the market leader they have,more than 30 35 percent market share but,unfortunately it's not the only player,so the pricing power here is actually,limited if this wasn't enough there's,another problem here and that's in-app,messages so i'll give you a practical,example here three or four years ago,uber was literally using twilio for,everything so if you actually booked a,cab they would send you a confirmation,message the problem is uber realized why,are we paying twilio we can actually do,everything inside the app so right now,for example when you book a cab and you,actually reach the destination you just,get all the messages inside the app so,in this case uber doesn't have to pay to,you anything and that's actually one of,their biggest threats and as always i,like to keep the kicker for the end yes,hey come high baby last year twiliu had,revenue of 2.8 billion dollars guess how,much was stock based compensation 632,million dollars that's 20 of the revenue,oh,oh,guess what got me once again who made,money youtubers because of garbage,videos like this management made money,because of of course decent salary and,options guess who didn't make money,people like you and me they are always,the suckers doesn't feel like a fair,deal to me what do you think

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